Validating a Simple Mechanistic Model That Describes Weather Impact on Pasture Growth

Abstract

Mathematical models have many uses. When input data is limited, simple models are required. This occurs in pasture agriculture when managers typically only have access to temperature and rainfall values. A simple pasture growth model was developed that requires only latitude and daily maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall. The accuracy of the model was validated using ten site-years of measured pasture growth at a site under continuous stocking where management controlled the height of grazing (HOG) and a site under rotational stocking at a West Virginia University farm (WVU). Relative forage growth, expressed as a fraction of maximum growth observed at the sites, was reasonably accurate. At the HOG site constant bias in relative growth was not different from zero. There was a year effect due to the weather station used for predicting growth at HOG being 1.8 km from the pasture. However, the error was only about 10-percent. At the WVU site constant bias for relative growth was not different from zero and year effect was eliminated when adjusted for nitrogen status of the treatments. This simple model described relative pasture growth within 10-percent of average for a given site, environment, and management using only daily weather inputs that are readily available. Using predictions of climate change impact on temperature and rainfall frequency and intensity this model can be used to predict the impact on pasture growth.