The Analysis of a Simulation of a Port–City Green Cooperative Development, Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Shanghai Port, China

Abstract

Ports are important network nodes for cargo transportation between cities and even countries, and they play vital roles in stimulating urban economies. However, at the same time, port production activities also consume various resources, such as water, electricity, coal, and land. In addition, ports inevitably produce waste—solid, water, gas, and other pollutants—which damages the environment of their hinterland cities, hindering the growth of urban GDP. Therefore, this study sought to build a reasonable system dynamics model to measure the positive and negative effects of ports on cities, and to put forward countermeasures and suggestions for promoting port–city green cooperative development. We selected Shanghai Port as a case study, estimated its parameters with 2010–2017 data, and tested the historical fitness of the model. We then carried out a scheme simulation by changing relevant parameters and comparing coordinated port–city development under different schemes. The simulation results show that increases in sea transportation activity and economic pull coefficients help to propel the growth of port–city GDP to a certain extent, but also cause environmental pollution and resource wastage. Therefore, effective energy-saving and emission-reduction measures are needed to achieve the coordinated development of economic growth and green environmental protection in ports and cities.