Spatio-Temporal Multi-Scale Analysis of Landscape Ecological Risk in Minjiang River Basin Based on Adaptive Cycle

Abstract

Landscape ecological security is an environmental requirement for social and economic development. Understanding the dynamic mechanisms of landscape change and the associated ecological risks in regional socioecological systems is necessary for promoting regional sustainable development. Using the Minjiang River Basin as the research area, the Google Earth Engine platform, random forest (RF) model, and FLUS model were employed for land use classification and future multi-scenario prediction. Multisource remote sensing data were used to establish a three-dimensional evaluation index system for an adaptive cycle. Additionally, the “potential-connection-resilience” framework was adopted to explore the spatial and temporal variations in landscape ecological risk in the basin from 2001 to 2035 under different administrative scales and development scenarios. The results showed that from 2001 to 2020, the building and forest areas increased significantly, whereas grassland and plowland areas decreased significantly. Moreover, the spatial fragmentation of the watershed improved significantly with the transformation of large amounts of grassland into forests. The construction area continued to expand in 2035 under different scenarios. Under the economic development scenario, the grassland and plowland areas decreased considerably, but the forest area increased slowly. Under the ecological protection scenario, the expansion of land use was restrained, and the reduction rate of grassland and cultivated land was moderated. From 2001 to 2020, the overall ecological risk was at a medium-low level and showed a decreasing trend, and the fragmentation degree of the forest had a significant impact on ecological risk. By 2035, landscape ecological risks increased under different development scenarios, and construction land expansion had become the dominant factor affecting the risk level. By evaluating the distribution and development trend of ecologically high-risk areas in the Minjiang River Basin, the results of this study provide basic support for the rational planning of land resources in the basin and decision making for future sustainable development efforts.