A Machine-Learning-Based Approach to Prediction of Biogeographic Ancestry within Europe

Abstract

Data obtained with the use of massive parallel sequencing (MPS) can be valuable in population genetics studies. In particular, such data harbor the potential for distinguishing samples from different populations, especially from those coming from adjacent populations of common origin. Machine learning (ML) techniques seem to be especially well suited for analyzing large datasets obtained using MPS. The Slavic populations constitute about a third of the population of Europe and inhabit a large area of the continent, while being relatively closely related in population genetics terms. In this proof-of-concept study, various ML techniques were used to classify DNA samples from Slavic and non-Slavic individuals. The primary objective of this study was to empirically evaluate the feasibility of discerning the genetic provenance of individuals of Slavic descent who exhibit genetic similarity, with the overarching goal of categorizing DNA specimens derived from diverse Slavic population representatives. Raw sequencing data were pre-processed, to obtain a 1200 character-long binary vector. A total of three classifiers were used—Random Forest, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and XGBoost. The most-promising results were obtained using SVM with a linear kernel, with 99.9% accuracy and F1-scores of 0.9846–1.000 for all classes.