Measurement-Invariant Fluid Anti-Flynn Effects in Population—Representative German Student Samples (2012–2022)

Author:

Oberleiter Sandra1,Patzl Sabine2ORCID,Fries Jonathan1ORCID,Diedrich Jennifer2,Voracek Martin3ORCID,Pietschnig Jakob1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Development and Educational Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, 1010 Vienna, Austria

2. International Student Assessment (ZIB), TUM School of Social Sciences and Technology, Technical University of Munich, 80333 Munich, Germany

3. Department of Cognition, Emotion, and Methods in Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, 1010 Vienna, Austria

Abstract

Generational IQ test scores in the general population were observed to increase over time (i.e., the Flynn effect) across most of the 1900s. However, according to more recent reports, Flynn effect patterns have seemingly become less consistent. So far, most available evidence on this phenomenon has been categorized by drawing on the classic fluid vs. crystallized intelligence taxonomy. However, recent evidence suggests that subdomain-specific trajectories of IQ change may well be more complex. Here, we present evidence for cross-temporal changes in measurement-invariant figural reasoning tasks in three large-scale, population-representative samples of German secondary school students (total N = 19,474). Analyses revealed a consistent pattern of significant and meaningful declines in performance from 2012 to 2022. Results indicate a decrease in figural reasoning of 4.68 to 5.17 IQ points per decade (corresponding to small-to-medium effects, Cohen ds from 0.34 to 0.38). These findings may be interpreted as tentative evidence for a decreasing strength of the positive manifold of intelligence as a potential cause of the increasing number of recent reports about inconsistent IQ change trajectories.

Funder

University of Vienna

Publisher

MDPI AG

Reference29 articles.

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4. Cohen, Jacob (1988). Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences, Erlbaum. [2nd ed.].

5. Intelligence and working memory: Relationship between factor g, cognitive complexity and processing capacity;Colom;Psicologia: Teoria e Pesquisa,2001

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