Modeling the Potential Distribution of Two Species of Shrews (Chodsigoa hypsibia and Anourosorex squamipes) under Climate Change in China

Abstract

Understanding how the direct and indirect effects of climate change may affect species distributions is a key topic in ecology. We used maximum entropy models to explore the distribution of two species of shrews (Chodsigoa hypsibia and Anourosorex squamipes) in China and analyzed the main environmental factors affecting their current distribution and potential distribution changes under two future climate scenarios. The results showed that the major environmental factors determining the current distribution of C. hypsibia were the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (contributing 47.4%), annual mean temperature (contributing 24.7%), precipitation of the driest quarter (contributing 21.1%) and isothermality (contributing 6%). Annual precipitation (contributing 42.9%), precipitation of the driest month (contributing 28.1%), annual mean temperature (contributing 14.8%) and temperature seasonality (contributing 12.6%) had the highest contributions to the distribution of A. squamipes. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat range of C. hypsibia increased while that of A. squamipes decreased. These findings demonstrate that different small mammal species respond differently to climate change.