A Markov Regime Switching Approach towards Assessing Resilience of Romanian Collective Investment Undertakings

Abstract

This paper explores the sensitivity of Romanian collective investment undertakings’ returns to changes in equity, fixed income and foreign exchange market returns. We use a sample of 80 open-end investment funds and pension funds with daily returns between 2016 and 2018. Our methodology consists of measuring changes in the daily conditional volatility for the fund returns (EGARCH) and changes in their conditional correlation with selected market risk factors (DCC MV-GARCH) throughout different volatility regimes identified using a Markov Regime Switching model. We argue that, on average, the level of conditional correlations between funds and market risk factors remained stable and unconcerned by the volatility regimes. In addition, for only less than half of the funds in the sample, their volatility regimes were synchronized with those of the selected market risk factors. We found that, on average, fund returns are more correlated with equity returns and less correlated with changes in local bond yields, while not being significantly influenced by changes in foreign bond yields or changes in foreign exchange. During the period investigated equity returns were the most volatile while the funds returns volatility were, on average, much more reduced. Overall, our results show the resilience of the Romanian collective investment sector to the selected market risk factors, during the investigated period.