Characteristics of Dieback of Pinus densiflora and Risk Assessment in the Wangpicheon Ecosystem and Landscape Conservation Area in Uljin, South Korea

Abstract

The correlation between climate change and pine tree dieback must be understood to implement a proactive forest management system. In this study, an ensemble model combining random forest, the generalized boosting model, and the generalized linear model was used to analyze the topographical and environmental characteristics of pine trees suffering from dieback in the Wangpicheon Ecosystem and Landscape Conservation Area, and the areas in which pine trees are at risk of dieback were evaluated to promote efficient pine forest management. The results showed that pine trees suffering from dieback in the conservation area were mainly located on ridges, were age class 6 or older, or were in areas with a low topographic wetness index south of the conservation area. An evaluation of the risk of dieback among pine trees was performed based on the results of two ensemble models. An area of 365 ha accounting for 6.8% of the total area was identified as requiring “caution” with respect to the risk of dieback of coniferous forests and mixed forests. The developed methodology is expected to provide valuable information for the implementation of an appropriate management system for the protection of pine and mixed forests from the negative effects of climate change.