Optimal Maintenance Decision Method for Urban Gas Pipelines Based on as Low as Reasonably Practicable Principle

Abstract

In the transportation process of urban gas pipelines, there are various uncontrollable risks and uncertainties possibly leading to the failure of gas pipelines and thereby serious consequences, such as city gas shutdown, nearby casualties, and environmental pollution. To avoid these hazards, numerous studies have been performed in identifying and evaluating the occurrence of risks and uncertainties to pipelines. However, discussions on risk reduction and other maintenance work are scarce; therefore, a scientific method to guide decision making is non-existent, thereby resulting in excessive investment in maintenance and reduced maintenance cost of other infrastructures. Therefore, the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) principle combined with optimization theory is used to discuss pipeline maintenance decision-making methods in unacceptable regions and ALARP regions. This paper focuses on the analysis of pipeline risk reduction in the ALARP region and proposes three optimization decision models. The case study shows that maintenance decision making should consider the comprehensive impact of maintenance cost to reduce risk and loss cost caused by pipeline failure, and that the further cost–benefit analysis of measures should be performed. The proposed pipeline maintenance decision-making method is an economical method for pipeline operators to make risk decisions under the premise of pipeline safety, which can improve the effectiveness of the use of maintenance resources.