Soil and Rockfill Dams Safety Assessment for Henan Province: Monitoring, Analysis and Prediction

Abstract

It is of great significance to explore the spatial and temporal evolution of soil and rockfill dam deformation, ensuring the safety of people’s lives and healthy economic development. The spatial and temporal evolution patterns of deformation of 17 large soil and rockfill dams in Henan Province were analyzed by using the PS-InSAR technique and 55 Sentinel-1A images from March 2017 to September 2021. Based on factors such as reservoir water level and rainfall, a series of analyses were conducted on the Xiaolangdi soil and rockfill dam, which has the highest dam height and the most prominent deformation problem. The monitoring results show that all the soil and rockfill dams in Henan Province have different degrees of deformation, and there is a close relationship between dam height and deformation. In addition, the deformation rate of the Xiaolangdi soil and rockfill dam in the past five years presents a “Stepped Shape” deformation trend from the top to the bottom of the dam. The deformation of the upper, middle, and lower parts of the dam body reaches 80 mm, 40 mm, and 20 mm, respectively, among which the middle part of the dam crest has the largest deformation. Furthermore, the time series prediction model for sparrow search algorithm Long Short-Term Memory considering the moving average filter (MAF-SSA-LSTM) is proposed to predict and accurately analyze the future deformation of Xiaolangdi soil and rockfill dam with RMSE of 1.526 mm, MAE of 1.447 mm, and MAPE of 2.22%, which proved that the model has high prediction accuracy. It can truly reflect the overall deformation trend of the dam body. The results provide a theoretical basis and decision basis for the census of reservoir safety conditions and deformation history retrieval in Henan Province.