Analysis of Electric Power Generation Growth in Pakistan: Falling into the Vicious Cycle of Coal

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze national policies of Pakistan taking into account the complexity of electric power generation, growth, and complying with multilateral agreements. Systems thinking has been applied to understand the complexity of energy scenario of Pakistan by representing it with a causal loop diagram (CLD) which displays the interconnectedness and feedbacks of the system. Analysis is based on systems archetypes to diagnose the system behavior, i.e., falling into the vicious cycle of coal. A stock-and-flow model was employed to capture dynamics of energy generation quantitatively, indicating that a 5% GDP growth rate could be sustained based on current planning to increase electric power generation in Pakistan. Thus, in order to achieve a 7% GDP growth rate, as targeted in Vision 2025 of Pakistan, energy generation targets would need to be revised in the view of the sensitivity of increase in energy demand associated with GDP growth rate, while ensuring compliance with multilateral agreements.