Evaluating the Determinants of Deforestation in Romania: Empirical Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model and the Bayer–Hanck Cointegration Approach

Abstract

This study focuses on deforestation, a key aspect of the current environmental decline linked to worldwide economic development and increasing populations. It examines how renewable energy consumption (RENC), GDP per capita, urbanization (URB) and foreign direct investments (FDI) have influenced the expansion of forest areas (FAG) in Romania from 1990 to 2022, utilizing an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the Bayer–Hanck cointegration approach. The main results of the paper are the following: GDP has a positive and statistically significant long-term influence on FAG; URB and FDI have a long-term negative impact on FAG; and RENC is not a significant determinant of FAG. In the short term, a 1% increase in URB leads to an 809.88% decrease in FAG, while a 1% increase in the first and second lag of URB leads to a 323.06%, and 216.26% increase in FAG. This suggests that as more land is developed for urban use (like building homes, businesses, and infrastructure), the immediate consequence is a significant reduction in the area available for forests. This effect indicates a strong inverse relationship between urbanization and the availability of land for forests in the short term. Our results underscore the importance of sustainable development strategies, including green urban planning and robust forest conservation, to offset the adverse effects of increased FDI on Romania’s environmental conservation, emphasizing the need for careful strategic planning and strong environmental policies to balance economic growth with forest protection.