Using Machine Learning to Predict 30-Day Hospital Readmissions in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation Undergoing Catheter Ablation

Abstract

Atrial fibrillation (AF) cases are expected to increase over the next several decades, due to the rise in the elderly population. One promising treatment option for AF is catheter ablation, which is increasing in use. We investigated the hospital readmissions data for AF patients undergoing catheter ablation, and used machine learning models to explore the risk factors behind these readmissions. We analyzed data from the 2013 Nationwide Readmissions Database on cases with AF, and determined the relative importance of factors in predicting 30-day readmissions for AF with catheter ablation. Various machine learning methods, such as k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, and support vector machine were utilized to develop predictive models with their accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve computed and compared. We found that the most important variables in predicting 30-day hospital readmissions in patients with AF undergoing catheter ablation were the age of the patient, the total number of discharges from a hospital, and the number of diagnoses on the patient’s record, among others. Out of the methods used, k-nearest neighbor had the highest prediction accuracy of 85%, closely followed by decision tree, while support vector machine was less desirable for these data. Hospital readmissions for AF with catheter ablation can be predicted with relatively high accuracy, utilizing machine learning methods. As patient age, the total number of hospital discharges, and the total number of patient diagnoses increase, the risk of hospital readmissions increases.