Key SDG7 Factors Shaping the Future of Clean Coal Technologies: Analysis of Trends and Prospects in Poland

Abstract

This article presents the results of an analysis aimed at verifying the relationship between the implementation of SDG Goal 7 and the use of clean coal technologies in Poland. Clean coal technologies in the United Nations plans will constitute a crucial element of the strategy for sustainable development in the energy context. They are intended to be one of the tools for building an energy system based on renewable energy sources, constituting a bridge that enables the transition of Poland’s energy system from coal to renewable energy sources. To identify whether this relationship exists, the Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous Input (ARMAX) model was used. The structure of the model, its correctness, and its accuracy were confirmed using information criteria; statistical tests such as Dickey-Fuller, Doornik-Hansen, Durbin-Watson, and Breusch-Pagan; and measures of prediction accuracy such as MAPE, MAE, and RMSE. The explanatory variables were the Objective 7 indicators adopted by Eurostat. Before being introduced to the ARMAX model, they were standardized using the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) indicator. The analysis made it possible to indicate which of the explanatory variables has the greatest impact on the development of clean coal technologies in Poland, to determine a synthetic CAGR measure for all the explanatory variables, and to compare the results obtained with the indicator determined by the United Nations.