Predicting the Habitat Suitability for Angelica gigas Medicinal Herb Using an Ensemble Species Distribution Model

Abstract

The distribution shift of forest species due to the fact of climate change may negatively affect ecosystem services including the production of medicinal resources. Climate change impact assessments of habitat range changes are essential to sustainably manage forest resources. A change in the habitat suitability due to the fact of climate change was predicted for Angelica gigas, which has high economic value among forest medicinal resources in South Korea. The habitat suitability was predicted by an ensemble species distribution model that combined the results of nine single algorithm models using the committee averaging method. A total 168 occurrence data and 10 environmental variables were used for the single algorithm models. The area under the receiver operation characteristic curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) were applied to evaluate the models’ performance, and the contribution of the environmental variables was calculated as an important value for each single algorithm model. Climate change scenarios were projected to predict future habitat suitability. The future suitable habitat for A. gigas was gradually reduced to the high mountain regions of the eastern part of South Korea regardless of the climate change scenarios. The main environmental variable was the annual mean temperature, and the rise in temperature due to the fact of climate change was found to have a negative effect on the habitat suitability for A. gigas. The decline in the habitat suitability for A. gigas, a major forest medicinal resource, is expected to result in the reduction in its production. Therefore, it is required to establish adaptation measures to mitigate the negative impact of this decrease, such as protecting the natural habitats of A. gigas.