Population Flow Mechanism Study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration from Industrial Space Supply Perspective

Abstract

The growing demographic dividend is declining worldwide due to global population shrinkage. However, with the enhancement of spatial connection, industry-oriented population flow is becoming more and more active. The floating demographic dividend will bring new opportunities to regional development. Population flow has become an important field of urban research. We selected the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as the study area and conducted the study of the interaction relationship between population flow and industry space supply. Considering that it takes time for space supplies to be industrial entities and then to affect population flow, this study built a fixed-effects model with annual space supply and “t + 1” population flow to perform regression analysis. The main findings of the research can be concluded as below. The regional population flow was mainly rural population and floated mainly to rural areas. It is difficult to complete the urbanization of floating population through land urbanization due to China’s household registration system. The population flow is sensitive to industry space supply and its spatial development conditions. As the study area is an important global urban agglomeration and China’s political, economic, and cultural center, its regional population flow is representative and typical. Guiding its population flow to form a coordinated spatial and social network can provide scientific support for regional industry space supply and allocation, and can provide a reference for the development of other urban agglomerations.