A Predictive Model to Evaluate the HbeAg Positivity of Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Patients in Clinics: A Cross-Sectional Study

Abstract

Background and Objective: The study aims to investigate the correlation between Hepatitis B ‘e’ antigen (HBeAg) and HBV DNA levels, and to find a convenient tool to estimate the HBV DNA level for clinicians. Materials and Methods: We enrolled 1020 patients in this cross-sectional study and divided them into four groups: an HbeAg-positive and -negative group, and high and low HBV DNA levels groups. Results: Alanine aminotransferase (ALT), Albumin (ALB) and HBeAg are independent risk factors for CHB patients. When the level of HBeAg is higher than 16.15 S/CO, it is four times more likely that the patients will have high levels of HBV DNA than those who do not. The ALT and TB are independent risk factors in HBeAg-negative patients with a high HBV DNA level. We have drawn three predictive models to estimate the HBV DNA levels for those with the chronic hepatitis B virus (CHB), and those that are HBeAg-positive and HBeAg-negative (Y1 = 0.004 × ALT(IU/L) + 1.412 × HBeAg (S/CO) − 0.029 × ALB (g/L) + 0.779, the AUC is 0.672, and the cutoff value is −0.072, there the sensitivity is 0.615, the specificity is 0.648, PPV is 65.182% and NPV is 60.837%; Y2 = 0.007 × HBeAg (S/CO) − 0.016 × HGB (g/L) + 3.070, the AUC is 0.724, and the cutoff value is 1.216, where the sensitivity is 0.626, the specificity is 0.897, PPV is 94.118% and NPV is 34.437%; Y3 = −0.005 × ALT(IU/L) + 0.006 × TB (umol/L) + 0.385, the AUC is 0.661, and the cutoff value is 0.263, where the sensitivity is 0.677, the specificity is 0.587, PPV is 66.820% and NPV is 40.774%, respectively). We propose that HBeAg is the most important risk factor for the patient with a high HBV DNA level, however, it is not as important in the HBeAg-positive group. Conclusions: HBeAg is an independent risk factor that reflects the level of HBV DNA with a strong correlation. Patient with HBeAg (−) should combine TB and ALT to estimate the level of HBV DNA.