A New Perspective for Multivariate Time Series Decision Making through a Nested Computational Approach Using Type-2 Fuzzy Integration

Abstract

The integration of key indicators from the results of the analysis of time series represents a constant challenge within organizations; this could be mainly due to the need to establish the belonging of each indicator within a process, geographic region or category. This paper thus illustrates how both primary and secondary indicators are relevant for decision making, and why they need to be integrated by making new final fuzzy indicators. Thus, our proposal consists of a type-2 fuzzy integration of multivariate time series, such as OECD country risk classification, inflation, population and gross national income (GNI) by using multiple type-1 fuzzy inference systems to perform time series classification tasks. Our contribution consists of the proposal to integrate multiple nested type-1 fuzzy inference systems using a type-2 fuzzy integration. Simulation results show the advantages of using the proposed method for the fuzzy classification of multiple time series. This is done in order so the user can have tools that allow them to understand the environment and generate comparative analyses of multiple information sources, and finally use it during the process prior to decision making considering the main advantage of modeling the inherent uncertainty.