The SQEIRP Mathematical Model for the COVID-19 Epidemic in Thailand

Abstract

The spread of COVID-19 started in late December 2019 and is still ongoing. Many countries around the world have faced an outbreak of COVID-19, including Thailand, which must keep an eye on the spread and find a way to deal with this extreme outbreak. Of course, we are unable to determine the number of people who will contract this disease in the future. Therefore, if there is a tool that helps to predict the outbreak and the number of people infected, it will be able to find preventive measures in time. This paper aims to develop a mathematical model suitable for the lifestyle of the Thai population facing the COVID-19 situation. It has been established that after close contact with an infected person, a group of individuals will be quarantined and non-quarantined. If they contract COVID-19, they will enter the incubation period of the infection. The incubation period is divided into the quarantine class and the exposed class. Afterwards, both classes will move to the hospitalized infected class and the infected class, wherein the infected class is able to spread the disease to the surrounding environment. This study describes both classes in the SQEIRP model based on the population segmentation that was previously discussed. After that, the positive and bounded solutions of the model are examined, and we consider the equilibrium point, as well as the global stability of the disease-free point according to the Castillo-Chavez method. The SQEIRP model is then numerically analyzed using MATLAB software version R2022a. The cumulative percentage of hospitalized and non-hospitalized infections after 7 days after the commencement of the infection was determined to be 11 and 34 percent of the entire population, respectively. The Next-Generation Matrix approach was used to calculate the Basic Reproduction Numbers (R0). The SQEIRP model’s R0 was 3.78, indicating that one infected individual can result in approximately three additional infections. The results of this SQEIRP model provide a preliminary guide to identifying trends in population dynamics in each class.