Blinded by Attachment: Examining the Overconfidence Bias of Sports Fans’ Intertemporal Ticket Purchase Decisions

Abstract

Optimally deciding on the best deal for sport event tickets requires the ability to evaluate risk and make informed decisions in uncertain environments. This study examines how individual trait factors, such as experience, expertise, and involvement, influence consumers’ decision-making process when purchasing tickets online for sporting events. To examine and test the study hypotheses, 640 respondents from a Qualtrics survey panel were recruited from geographically confined subjects of New York City sports fans over a ten-day data collection period. The research subjects were surveyed to assess their perception of the expected likelihood of obtaining event tickets at a lower rate (ELR) and the expected likelihood that tickets would remain available (ETA) as the event day approached. MANOVA showed that there was a significant effect of the time period on the participants’ ETA and ELR risk assessments [Λ = 0.954, F (18, 1262) = 1.653, p < 0.05]. The ETA was highest ten days before the event and lowest the day before the event, with a similar pattern observed for the ELR. The mediation path analysis showed that fan involvement had a strong positive correlation with confidence (B = 0.496, p < 0.001). Confidence, in turn, was a significant predictor of the ELR (B = 5.729, p < 0.05) but not for the ETA (B = 1.516, p = 0.504). The positive mediation of confidence between fan involvement and the ELR indicates that consumers with higher fan involvement tend to have overconfidence in their ability to evaluate the uncertain purchase environment, which ultimately impacts their risk perception and decision-making. The study highlights the importance of considering both temporal and psychological factors when assessing the likelihood of ticket purchases and provides behavioral insights for sports marketers and ticket distributors.