Analyzing Monthly Blood Test Data to Forecast 30-Day Hospital Readmissions among Maintenance Hemodialysis Patients

Abstract

Background: The increase in the global population of hemodialysis patients is linked to aging demographics and the prevalence of conditions such as arterial hypertension and diabetes mellitus. While previous research in hemodialysis has mainly focused on mortality predictions, there is a gap in studies targeting short-term hospitalization predictions using detailed, monthly blood test data. Methods: This study employs advanced data preprocessing and machine learning techniques to predict hospitalizations within a 30-day period among hemodialysis patients. Initial steps include employing K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) imputation to address missing data and using the Synthesized Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) to ensure data balance. The study then applies a Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm for the predictive analysis, with an additional enhancement through ensemble learning techniques, in order to improve prediction accuracy. Results: The application of SVM in predicting hospitalizations within a 30-day period among hemodialysis patients resulted in an impressive accuracy rate of 93%. This accuracy rate further improved to 96% upon incorporating ensemble learning methods, demonstrating the efficacy of the chosen machine learning approach in this context. Conclusions: This study highlights the potential of utilizing machine learning to predict hospital readmissions within a 30-day period among hemodialysis patients based on monthly blood test data. It represents a significant leap towards precision medicine and personalized healthcare for this patient group, suggesting a paradigm shift in patient care through the proactive identification of hospitalization risks.