Stress Prediction Model of Super-High Arch Dams Based on EMD-PSO-GPR Model

Abstract

In response to the challenge of limited model availability for predicting the lifespan of super-high arch dams, a hybrid model named EMD-PSO-GPR (EPR) is proposed in this study. The EPR model leverages Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to provide an effective solution for super-high arch dam stress prediction. This research focuses on three strategically selected measurement points within the dam, characterized by complex stress conditions. The predicted results from the EPR are compared with those from GPR, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Support Vector Regression (SVR), using actual stress data measured at research points within a super-high arch dam in Southwest China. The findings reveal that the proposed EPR model attains a maximum mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.02916 and a maximum root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.03055, surpassing the compared models. As a result, the EPR model introduces an innovative computational framework for stress prediction in super-high arch dams, excelling in handling stress data characterized by high vibration frequencies and providing more accurate predictions.