Optimal Transmission Expansion Planning with Long-Term Solar Photovoltaic Generation Forecast

Abstract

Solar PhotoVoltaics (PV) integration into the electricity grids significantly increases the complexity of Transmission Expansion Planning (TEP) because solar PV power generation is uncertain and difficult to predict. Therefore, this paper proposes the optimal planning method for transmission expansion combined with uncertain solar PV generation. The problem of uncertain solar PV generation is solved by using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) for forecasting solar radiation with high accuracy. The objective function is to minimize total system cost, including the investment cost of new transmission lines and the operating cost of power generation. The optimal TEP problem is solved by the Binary Differential Evolution (BDE) algorithm. To investigate and demonstrate the performance of the proposed method, the IEEE 24-bus system and solar radiation data in Thailand are selected as a study case for TEP. The MATPOWER program written in MATLAB software is used for solving optimal power flow problems. Simulation results show that the proposed optimal TEP method combined with forecasting solar PV power generation using the LSTM can reduce the total system cost of the transmission expansion by 9.12% compared with the cost obtained by the TEP using solar radiation from statistical data.