Spatio-Temporal Evolution, Future Trend and Phenology Regularity of Net Primary Productivity of Forests in Northeast China

Abstract

Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is one of the significant indicators to measure environmental changes; thus, the relevant study of NPP in Northeast China, Asia, is essential to climate changes and ecological sustainable development. Based on the Global Production Efficiency (GLO-PEM) model, this study firstly estimated the NPP in Northeast China, from 2001 to 2019, and then analyzed its spatio-temporal evolution, future changing trend and phenology regularity. Over the years, the NPP of different forests type in Northeast China showed a gradual increasing trend. Compared with other different time stages, the high-value NPP (700–1300 gC·m−2·a−1) in Changbai Mountain, from 2017 to 2019, is more widely distributed. For instance, the NPP has an increasing rate of 6.92% compared to the stage of 2011–2015. Additionally, there was a significant advance at the start of the vegetation growth season (SOS), and a lag at the end of the vegetation growth season (EOS), from 2001 to 2019. Thus, the whole growth period of forests in Northeast China became prolonged with the change of phenology. Moreover, analysis on the sustainability of NPP in the future indicates that the reverse direction feature of NPP change will be slightly stronger than the co-directional feature, meaning that about 30.68% of the study area will switch from improvement to degradation. To conclude, these above studies could provide an important reference for the sustainable development of forests in Northeast China.