Multiscenario Simulation and Prediction of Land Use in Huaibei City Based on CLUE-S and PLUS Models

Abstract

Analyzing land use changes (LUC) in both past and future scenarios is critical to optimize local ecology and formulate policies for sustainable development. We analyzed LUC characteristics in Huaibei City, China from 1985 to 2020, and used the CLUE-S and PLUS models to simulate LU in 2020. Then, we compared the accuracy of the simulation phase and chose the PLUS model to project LU under four scenarios in 2025. The results showed the following: (1) Farmland and grassland areas decreased from 1985 to 2020, while forestland, water, and construction land increased. (2) The LU types in the region are explained well by the driving factors, with all receiver operation characteristic (ROC) values greater than 0.8. (3) The kappa indices for CLUE-S and PLUS analog modeling were 0.727 and 0.759, respectively, with figure of merit (FOM) values of 0.109 and 0.201. (4) Under the farmland and ecological protection scenario (FEP), farmland and forestland areas are protected, increasing by 1727.91 hm2 and 86.22 hm2, respectively, while construction land decreases by 2001.96 hm2. These results confirm that PLUS is significantly better than the CLUE-S model in modeling forestland and water, and slightly better than the CLUE-S model in modeling the rest of the LU type. Urban sustainability is strong in the scenario FEP.