Seasonal Occurrence of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar and Domestic Pigs in EU Member States

Abstract

Since 2007, African swine fever (ASF) has spread widely within Europe and beyond. Most affected countries recorded outbreaks in domestic pigs and cases in wild boar. Outbreak data from 2014 to 2021 were used to investigate the seasonal pattern of ASF in domestic pigs and wild boar across affected member states of the European Union, since knowledge of seasonal patterns may provide the potential to adapt prevention, surveillance and control during times of increased risk. In domestic pigs, a yearly peak was observed in many European countries in summer (predominantly in July and August). In wild boar, the patterns showed more variability. In many countries, there was a seasonal peak of ASF occurrence in winter (predominantly in January and December), with an additional summer peak in the Baltic States (predominantly in July) and a further spring peak in Poland (predominantly in March). The observed seasonal effects may be related to the abundance and population dynamics of wild boar and to seasonality in pig farming. Moreover, ASF occurrence may also be influenced by human activities in both domestic pigs and wild boar.