Directed Criminal Networks: Temporal Analysis and Disruption

Abstract

We extend network analysis to directed criminal networks in the context of asymmetric links. We computed selected centralities, centralizations and the assortativity of a drug trafficking network with 110 nodes and 295 edges. We also monitored the centralizations of eleven temporal networks corresponding to successive stages of investigation during the period 1994–1996. All indices reach local extrema at the stage of highest activity, extending previous results to directed networks. The sharpest changes (90%) are observed for betweenness and in-degree centralization. A notable difference between entropies is observed: the in-degree entropy reaches a global minimum at month 12, while the out-degree entropy reaches a global maximum. This confirms that at the stage of highest activity, incoming instructions are precise and focused, while outgoing instructions are diversified. These findings are expected to be useful for alerting the authorities to increasing criminal activity. The disruption simulations on the time-averaged network extend previous results on undirected networks to directed networks.