Magnitude Estimation of Overpressure Generation Mechanisms Using Quantitative Stochastic 2D Basin Models: A Case Study from the Danube-Tisza Interfluve Area in Hungary

Abstract

The overpressure formation in the Pannonian basin, Hungary, was investigated but has not been properly understood for the last 40 years because at least two different explanations were delineated. The first explanation considers the hydrocarbon generation as the main overpressure generation mechanism with some undercompaction contribution. On the contrary, another explanation assumes tectonic stress as the main trigger of abnormal pressure. The following research delivers a suitable workflow to understand which generation mechanisms were active in the study area and estimate the quantitative contribution of the mechanisms. The developed workflow relies on the basin modeling principles that were designed to simulate subsurface processes on a geological timeframe. Moreover, the uncertainty of input parameters was considered, and the joint application of a heuristic Monte Carlo simulation scheme and improved basin modeling resulted in stochastic pore pressure models. The most frequent value (MFV) method was applied on the simulated values to test a robust statistical method in pore pressure prediction. The study has identified not only the four main overpressure generation mechanisms, but it could calculate the individual contribution to the subsurface pressure. Finally, two independent and stochastic pore pressure prediction methods have been developed that could be used in the pre-drill well planning phase and the real-time prediction during drilling.