The Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Cultivated Land and Its Influential Factors in The Low Hilly Region: A Case Study of Lishan Town, Hubei Province, China

Abstract

Cultivated land is a basic resource that is related to the sustainable development of the global economy and society. Studying the spatial and temporal distribution of cultivated land and its influential factors at the township scale is an important way to improve its sustainable use. Based on the land use data in 2009 and 2015, this paper comprehensively uses kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and the spatial autoregressive model to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics and influential factors of cultivated land. The results show that in 2009 and 2015, the maximum kernel density of cultivated land in Lishan Town was 31/km2 and 38/km2, respectively, and there is an increasing tendency for it in the future. The global spatial autocorrelation Moran’s I of the proportion of cultivated land area in the administrative villages of Lishan Town in 2009 and 2015 was 0.5251 and 0.3970, respectively. Cultivated land has significant spatial self-positive correlation agglomeration characteristics in spatial distribution. Based on spatial error model (SEM) analysis, the regression coefficients of the village were 0.236 and 0.196 in 2009 and 2015, respectively. The regression coefficients of the road were 0.632 and 0.630, respectively. The regression coefficients of the water system were 0.481 and 0.290, respectively. The regression coefficients of the topographic position index were −0.817 and −0.672, respectively. By comparing 2015 with 2009, the regression coefficients of each influential factor have been reduced to varying degrees.