Investigation into Mining Economic Evaluation Approaches Based on the Rosenblueth Point Estimate Method

Abstract

Conducting technical and economic evaluations is important for mining investment and mining operation decision-making. Traditional economic evaluation methods rarely address the issue of evaluation reliability and usually require complex calculations to obtain the optimal solution. In this study, the Rosenblueth point estimate method for reliability evaluation of engineering project schemes is introduced. Combined with the cash flow method for economic evaluation of mines, the Rosenblueth point estimate method for evaluating the reliability of mining economy is established. Based on the technical and economic index of the case mine, taking the ore grade as a sensitivity indicator, empirical research on established models and methods was carried out. The results of the economic reliability evaluation and the variation rules obtained using the Rosenblueth point estimate method model were basically consistent with the actual production and operation rules of mining enterprise. The similar results also proved that the proposed model has good applicability and reliability for mining economic evaluation. Using the proposed RPEM economic reliability model, the economic reliability of a certain iron mine in Liaoning Province was calculated to be 99.95, which was a huge improvement compared with the traditional evaluation method. Additionally, the calculation process of the proposed model for economic reliability evaluation is simple and the accuracy is controllable. The economic reliability of the project can be calculated based on changes in sensitivity indicators, and the value range of sensitivity indicators can also be calculated through the required reliability. The obtained results and the proposed evaluation model provide a decision-making basis for mining investment projects and operation management.