The Spatiotemporal Changing Dynamics of Miombo Deforestation and Illegal Human Activities for Forest Fire in Kundelungu National Park, Democratic Republic of the Congo

Abstract

In the Kundelungu National Park (KNP), southeast of the Democratic Republic of Congo, illicit human activities including recurrent bushfires contribute to constant regression of forest cover. This study quantifies the landscape dynamics and analyses the spatio-temporal distribution of bushfire occurrence within KNP. Based on classified Landsat images from 2001, 2008, 2015 and 2022, the evolutionary trend of land cover was mapped and quantified through landscape metrics. The spatial transformation processes underlying the observed landscape dynamics were identified based on a decision tree. Finally, the spatio-temporal fire risk assessment was carried out after defining the burnt areas for each year between 2001 and 2022. The obtained results, expressed by the process of dissection and attrition of patches, show that the forest cover has regressed from 2339 km2 to 1596 km2 within the PNK, with an annual deforestation rate varying from 0.8% to 3.4% between 2001 and 2022. Over the same period, the average distance between forest patches has increased significantly, indicating fragmentation and spatial isolation. On the other hand, savannahs as well as field and fallow mosaics have expanded within KNP through the creation of new patches. In addition, several active fires affected more savannahs between 2001 (70 km2 in Integral Zone, 239 km2 in Annex Zone and 309 km2 in KNP) and 2022 (76 km2 in Integral Zone, 744 km2 in Annex Zone and 819 km2 in KNP), limiting their capacity to evolve into forests. Overall, anthropogenic pressure is higher in the Annex Zone of the KNP. Illegal agricultural development and vegetation fires have thus doubled the level of landscape disturbance in 21 years. Our observations justify the need to strengthen protection measures for KNP by limiting repeated human intrusions.