Trends and Characteristics of Inter-Provincial Migrants in Mainland China and Its Relation with Economic Factors: A Panel Data Analysis from 2011 to 2016

Abstract

For areas facing challenges associated with migration, information about the number of migrants and their demographic characteristics is needed to formulate regional development planning. This study analyzed the trends and characteristics of inter-provincial migrants in provinces in mainland China and related economic factors using panel regression models. The results showed that the number of inter-provincial migrants had increased in provincial municipalities, as had the proportions of female and elderly migrants. A higher annual net migration rate was associated with slower growth rate of real gross domestic product (RGDP) per capita and faster growth rates of the tertiary and secondary industry GDPs. The higher proportion of female migrants was related to the faster growth rate of the tertiary industry GDP and the lower proportion of the secondary industry in GDP. The proportion of youth migrants was positively related to educational investment, while the proportion of elderly migrants was positively related to financial expenditure per capita on culture and recreation. These empirical results were robust across different estimation methods, except the result about the proportion of elderly migrants. These findings further reveal the association between inter-provincial migration and economy and provide policy reference for the management of migrants.