Analysis of Uncertainties and Levels of Foreknowledge in Relation to Major Features of Emerging Technologies—The Context of Foresight Research for the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Abstract

One of the key roles in the development of Industry 4.0 systems is played by “emerging technologies” as new tools with promising—though with a high level of uncertainty—capabilities. The management of such systems should be based on a comprehensive—future-oriented—research approach. Such activities are enabled by the foresight methodology. The main purpose of this publication is to attempt to answer the following research question: “What levels of foreknowledge and knowledge in the context of the development of emerging technologies—in relation to their features in Industry 4.0—should be taken into account during the analysis of uncertainties in the sense of foresight research based on different anticipated options?” In detail, the examination covered the relationship of classes of research foresight methods with regard to types of future, scopes of uncertainty, cycles of knowledge and original levels of foreknowledge in the field of the development of emerging technologies in Industry 4.0. Emerging technologies combined with the research on foreknowledge and uncertainties is an interesting research area with many theoretical and practical potential implications. The study uses the results of the analysis and criticism of the literature, mental experiments, and the intuitive method as the main research methods. This provides a basis for performing conceptual modeling.