Flood Hazard Assessment for the Tori Levee Breach of the Indus River Basin, Pakistan

Abstract

Levee breaches are some of the most common hazards in the world and cause the loss of lives, livelihoods, and property destruction. During the 2010 flood in Pakistan, the most devastating breach occurred at Tori Levee on the right bank of the Indus River, downstream of the Guddu Barrage, which caused residual floods in northern Sindh and the adjoining regions of the Balochistan province. In this study, 2D unsteady flow modeling performed for Tori Levee breach computed residual flood inundation by coupling a HEC-RAS (Hydrological Engineering Centre—River Analysis System) 2D hydraulic model with remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques. The model performance was judged by comparing the observed and simulated water levels (stage) during peak flow at seven different gauging stations located within the Indus River reach and daily flood extents and multi-day composites. The quantitative values for the calibration and validation of the HEC-RAS model showed good performance with a range of difference from 0.13 to −0.54 m between the simulated and observed water levels (stage), 84% match for the maximum flood inundation area, and 73.2% for the measure of fit. The overall averages of these values for the daily flood comparison were 57.12 and 75%, respectively. Furthermore, the simulated maximum flow passed through the Tori Levee breach, which was found to be 4994.47 cumecs (about 15% of peak flow) with a head water stage of 71.56 m. By using the simulated flows through the Tori Levee breach, the flood risk maps for the 2010 flood identified hazard zones according to the flood characteristics (depth, velocity, depth times velocity, arrival time, and duration). All the flood risk maps concluded the fact that the active flood plain was uninhabitable under flood conditions.