Preliminary Seismic Hazard Analyses for the Ugandan Region

Abstract

Uganda is situated between the two seismically active branches of the East African Rift Valley System, which are characterized by high levels of seismicity. A probabilistic approach has been used to assess the seismic hazard for Uganda and the surrounding areas. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis requires the availability of an earthquake catalog, relevant ground motion prediction equations, and an outline of how the hazard calculations will be conducted. Using online sources, an earthquake catalog for Uganda and the immediate areas around Uganda was compiled spanning 108 years, from 1912 to 2020. This catalog was homogenized to moment magnitude to match with the selected ground motion prediction equations from Toro and Idriss. A logic tree accounting for the two ground motion prediction equations and dividing the study region into four seismic zones was used for calculating the seismic hazard. As an example, the seismic hazard results at two sites close to each other showed how different seismic hazards can be. Results from the probabilistic seismic hazard analyses was expressed through seismic hazard maps for peak ground acceleration at 10% probability of exceedance in 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 500 years, corresponding to return periods of 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000 and 5000 years, respectively. The seismic hazard map for 10% probability of exceedance in 5 years calculated PGAs from 0.02 to 0.10 g and 0.10 to 0.27 g outside of and within the western branch of the East African Rift Valley System, respectively. The estimated PGAs from previous studies at a similar probability of exceedance level are within the range of these findings, although the ranges calculated herein are wider.