Remote Sensing Evidence for Significant Variations in the Global Gross Domestic Product during the COVID-19 Epidemic

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been spreading rapidly and is still threatening human health currently. A series of measures for restraining epidemic spreading has been adopted throughout the world, which seriously impacted the gross domestic product (GDP) globally. However, details of the changes in the GDP and its spatial heterogeneity characteristics on a fine scale worldwide during the pandemic are still uncertain. We designed a novel scheme to simulate a 0.1° × 0.1° resolution grid global GDP map during the COVID-19 pandemic. Simulated nighttime-light remotely sensed data (SNTL) was forecasted via a GM(1, 1) model under the assumption that there was no COVID-19 epidemic in 2020. We constructed a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to determine the quantitative relationship between the variation of nighttime light (ΔNTL) and the variation of GDP (ΔGDP). The scheme can detect and explain the spatial heterogeneity of ΔGDP at the grid scale. It is found that a series of policies played an obvious role in affecting GDP. This work demonstrated that the global GDP, except for in a few countries, represented a remarkably decreasing trend, whereas the ΔGDP exhibited significant differences.