Influences of Power Structure Evolution on Coffee Commodity Markets: Insights from Price Discovery and Volatility Spillovers

Abstract

This study examines the influences of the power structure evolution along the global coffee value chain on coffee spot-futures commodity markets. Specifically, this study aims to analyze the mechanisms and extent to which the coffee spot-futures commodity markets are affected by shifts in the power structure in each phase following the collapse of the ICA from the perspective of price discovery and volatility spillovers by employing the PT–IS and bivariate EGARCH models. This research covers two actively traded coffee types, Arabica and Robusta, and utilizes daily time-series price data over 1990:01–2020:04 for Arabica and over 2008:01–2020:04 for Robusta. The empirical results indicate that coffee spot markets play a dominant role in price discovery for both Arabica and Robusta over all periods, and volatility spillovers occur from the coffee spot market to the futures markets. This study demonstrates to coffee market players that power structure evolutions across coffee’s global value chain have not significantly changed the underlying socio-spatial distribution of the coffee value chain over the post-ICA period. The results further imply that a buyer-driven governance is emerging in the coffee industry and large coffee roasters are beginning to dominate the global coffee value chain. Moreover, large coffee roasters are incentivized to diversify their marketing strategies by considering more market factors as part of their market differentiation strategies. Government interventions are necessary to establish price risk-management mechanisms to protect small-scale coffee growers.