Evaluation of WRF Microphysics Schemes Performance Forced by Reanalysis and Satellite-Based Precipitation Datasets for Early Warning System of Extreme Storms in Hyper Arid Environment

Abstract

In this paper, we will investigate the influence of the microphysics schemes on the rainfall pattern of the extreme storm that impacted Egypt on 12 March 2020. The aim is to improve rainfall forecasting using the numerical Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for an effective Early Warning System (EWS). The performance of six microphysics schemes were evaluated using the Model Object-based Evaluation analysis tool (MODE) forced by three selected satellite-based datasets (CMORPH, PERSIANN, PERSIANN-CCS, etc.) and one reanalysis dataset (ERA5). Six numerical simulations were performed using the WRF model, considering the following microphysics schemes: Lin, WSM6, Goddard, Thompson, Morrison, and NSSL2C. The models were evaluated using both conventional statistical indices and MODE, which is much more suitable in such studies. The results showed that the Lin scheme outperformed the other schemes such as WSM6, Goddard, Thompson, Morrison, and NSSL2C, in rainfall forecasting. The Thompson scheme was found to be the least reliable scheme. An extension for this study is recommended in other regions where the observational rain gauges data are available.