Prediction of Selected Mechanical Properties of Polymer Composites with Alumina Modifiers

Abstract

Forecasting is one of the cognitive methods based on empirical knowledge supported by appropriate modeling methods that give information about the way the relations between factors and how the phenomenon under study will develop in the future. In this article, a selection is made of a suitable architecture for a predictive model for a set of data obtained during testing of the properties of polymer composites with a matrix in the form of epoxy resin with trade name L285 (Havel Composites) with H285 MGS hardener (Havel Composites), and with the addition of the physical modifier noble alumina with mass percentages of 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% and 25% for the following grain sizes: F220, F240, F280, F320, F360, respectively. In order to select the optimal architecture for the predictive model, the results of the study were tested on five types of predictive model architectures results were tested on five types of prediction model architectures, with five-fold validation, including the mean square error (MSE) metric and R2 determined for Young’s modulus (Et), maximum stress (σm), maximum strain (εm) and Shore D hardness (⁰Sh). Based on the values from the forecasts and the values from the empirical studies, it was found that in 63 cases the forecast should be considered very accurate (this represents 63% of the forecasts that were compared with the experimental results), while 15 forecasts can be described as accurate (15% of the forecasts that were compared with the experimental results). In 20 cases, the MPE value indicated the classification of the forecast as acceptable. As can be seen, only for two forecasts the MPE error takes values classifying them to unacceptable forecasts (2% of forecasts generated for verifiable cases based on experimental results).