Combining Sample Plot Stratification and Machine Learning Algorithms to Improve Forest Aboveground Carbon Density Estimation in Northeast China Using Airborne LiDAR Data

Abstract

Timely, accurate estimates of forest aboveground carbon density (AGC) are essential for understanding the global carbon cycle and providing crucial reference information for climate-change-related policies. To date, airborne LiDAR has been considered as the most precise remote-sensing-based technology for forest AGC estimation, but it suffers great challenges from various uncertainty sources. Stratified estimation has the potential to reduce the uncertainty and improve the forest AGC estimation. However, the impact of stratification and how to effectively combine stratification and modeling algorithms have not been fully investigated in forest AGC estimation. In this study, we performed a comparative analysis of different stratification approaches (non-stratification, forest type stratification (FTS) and dominant species stratification (DSS)) and different modeling algorithms (stepwise regression, random forest (RF), Cubist, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and categorical boosting (CatBoost)) to identify the optimal stratification approach and modeling algorithm for forest AGC estimation, using airborne LiDAR data. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to quantify and determine the factors that had a significant effect on the estimation accuracy. The results revealed the superiority of stratified estimation models over the unstratified ones, with higher estimation accuracy achieved by the DSS models. Moreover, this improvement was more significant in coniferous species than broadleaf species. The ML algorithms outperformed stepwise regression and the CatBoost models based on DSS provided the highest estimation accuracy (R2 = 0.8232, RMSE = 5.2421, RRMSE = 20.5680, MAE = 4.0169 and Bias = 0.4493). The ANOVA of the prediction error indicated that the stratification method was a more important factor than the regression algorithm in forest AGC estimation. This study demonstrated the positive effect of stratification and how the combination of DSS and the CatBoost algorithm can effectively improve the estimation accuracy of forest AGC. Integrating this strategy with national forest inventory could help improve the monitoring of forest carbon stock over large areas.