A Study on Risk Measurement of Logistics in International Trade: A Case Study of the RCEP Countries

Abstract

International trade can be severely disrupted by failures in international logistics processes. Therefore, an understanding of international logistics risk is imperative for the smooth operation of international trade, systematically studying the causes, responsible parties, and possible consequences of international logistics risk. On this basis, international logistics risk is classified from the perspective of the consequences caused by logistics risk, combined with the influencing factors and types of risk, establishing the index system and evaluation model of international logistics risk; Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods were used to evaluate international logistics risk, and the international logistics risk in the international trade of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is also discussed. The results show that generally, international logistics risks are mainly logistics loss risk, logistics cost risk, and logistics timeliness risk. The logistics risks in the transaction with RCEP mainly include logistics loss risk, logistics cost risk, logistics timeliness risk, environmental risk, and logistics information risk. The risk causes include five risks: general causes, accidents, bankruptcy or ultra vires of logistics companies, customs clearance problems, and cargo characteristics. By establishing the international logistics risk measurement index system, it can hopefully play a preventive and guiding role in the research of international logistics risk assessment and the international logistics risk management of RCEP enterprises.