Incorporating Medical Supply and Demand into the Index of Physician Maldistribution Improves the Sensitivity to Healthcare Outcomes

Abstract

Background: Since the association between disparity in physician distribution and specific healthcare outcomes is poorly documented, we aimed to clarify the association between physician maldistribution and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), a high-priority health outcome in Japan. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, we conducted multivariable regression analysis with the Physician Uneven Distribution Index (PUDI), a recently developed and adopted policy index in Japan that uniquely incorporates the gap between medical supply and demand, as the independent variable and CeVD death rate as the dependent variable. Population density, mean annual income, and prevalence of hypertension were used as covariates. Results: The coefficient of the PUDI for the CeVD death rate was −0.34 (95%CI: −0.49–−0.19) before adjusting for covariates and was −0.19 (95%CI: −0.30–−0.07) after adjusting. The adjusted R squared of the analysis for the PUDI was 0.71 in the final model. However, the same multivariable regression model showed that the number of physicians per 100,000 people (NPPP) was not associated with the CeVD death rates before or after adjusting for the covariates. Conclusion: Incorporating the gap between the medical supply and demand in physician maldistribution indices could improve the responsiveness of the index for assessing the disparity in healthcare outcomes.