Update on Risk Criteria for Crude Oil Tanker Fleet

Abstract

In recent years, the maritime trade of crude oil has suffered notable perturbations caused by the unbalanced relationship between supply and demand. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a drop in oil consumption in 2019, followed by a reduction in production in 2020. The seaborne transport of oil accounts for approximately 50–60% of all crude oil in world production. The crude oil market is a crucial regulator of the global economy and instabilities in this market have noticeable effects on collective risks. The immediate risks that the society see are the changes in the cost of living, which are followed by political uncertainties. Less visible are the risks that these uncertainties have on shipping companies and the level of management stability they have to maintain in order to keep seagoing safe. This paper presents an update on the overall state of risk management for the crude oil tanker fleet, evidenced by EMSA and other international marine organisations. The previous paper, entitled Safety Assessment of Crude Oil Tankers, which applied the methodology of the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA), was published in 2018 and covered the historical data related to the fleet size, accident reports, amount of oil spilled on sea and the economic value of the crude oil transport business. The particular focus of this paper is on the evolution of the risk acceptance criteria over the years and the difference in the predictions from 2018 to the present day. The effects of the pandemic on crude oil shipping are discussed through the changes in the risks. Three of them are analysed: PLL (potential loss of lives), PLC (potential loss of containment) and PLP (potential loss of property). The representation of the risk applies the F-N curves among the risk acceptance criteria lines observed for different tanker sizes. Among the three risks, the paper exposes the vulnerability of the loss of containment risk, where the strong economic impact of the oil trade outweighs the environmental concerns. In relation to the PLC, the paper proposes the approach of relating the oil spill acceptability with the spill quantity and ship revenue instead of to the cost of cleaning or the cost of environment recovery.