Assessment of Urban Land Surface Temperature and Vertical City Associated with Dengue Incidences

Abstract

Rapid population and urban growth in Bangkok increases the need for vertical city development because of the limited territory. This might lead to increasing land surface temperatures (LST), which makes some urban areas significantly warmer and leads to hot spots known as urban heat islands. It is known that climatic factors, such as rainfall and temperature, influence increases in dengue incidences. Thus, this research uses spatial statistical analysis to consider the association of urban LST with dengue incidences. The LST calculation methods are based on LANDSAT imageries in 2009 and 2014. Pearson correlation and Bayesian hierarchical modeling were used for predicting dengue incidences. This study found the highest correlation between the density of high-rise buildings, which had a significant influence on LST, and dengue incidences. Both the number of high-rise buildings and the surface temperature of low-rise buildings increased dengue incidence between 2009 and 2014. Overall, it was found that for every increase of 1000 high-rise buildings, the dengue incidence increased 2.19 on average during that period.