A Wave Directionality and a Within-Year Wave Climate Variability Effects on the Long-Term Extreme Significant Wave Heights Prediction in the Adriatic Sea

Author:

Mikulić AntonioORCID,Parunov JoškoORCID

Abstract

The extreme significant wave height predictions often neglect within-year wave climate variability and wave directionality. Depending on a geographical region, local wind patterns and year climate variability could have an influence on the long-term prediction of waves. The Adriatic Sea having two dominant wind patterns of different characteristics, Bura and Jugo, is a great example for the case study. The 23-year hindcast wave data used in the presented study is extracted from the WorldWaves database. Based on wind and wave data, annual extreme significant wave heights generated by different wind patterns and for different months are fitted by Gumbel distribution using maximum likelihood estimation. Combined long-term extremes are then predicted by calculating system probability. It was found that considering the wave directionality, and especially the seasonality of wave climate, leads to a larger prediction of extreme significant wave heights. The extreme value prediction considering wave directionality on average yields 4% larger significant wave heights, while considering within-year climate variability leads to, on average, 8% larger extremes compared to the predictions when both effects are neglected.

Funder

Croatian Science Foundation

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Ocean Engineering,Water Science and Technology,Civil and Structural Engineering

Reference25 articles.

1. Det Norske Veritas (2019). Recommended Practice DNV-RP-C205: Environmental Conditions and Environmental Loads, Det Norske Veritas.

2. IACS (2000). Rec. No. 34. Standard Wave Data (North Atlantic Scatter Diagramm), IACS.

3. Ergin, S., and Soares, C.G. (2022). Sustainable Development and Innovations in Marine Technologies: Proceedings of the 19th International Congress of the International Maritime Association of the Mediterranean (IMAM 2022), Istanbul, Turkey, 26–29 September 2022, CRC Press.

4. Estimating Return Values of Environmental Parameters;Carter;Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.,1981

5. Extreme Values of Surface Wave Heights in the Northern Adriatic;Leder;Geofizika,1998

Cited by 1 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3