Energy Price Policies and Food Prices: Empirical Evidence from Iran

Abstract

During the last decade, the rising trend in energy prices and its potential effect on food prices have become a controversial issue between policy-makers and economists. Therefore, research addressing the relationship between food and macroeconomic variables, such as energy prices, will be useful in providing information for the design of appropriate economic policies. This study uses data from Iran to examine the impacts (short- and long-term) of exchange rate and energy prices on food prices. Iran is a good case study as in recent years its consumers have faced a rapid increase in both fuel and food prices. The variables employed in this study are the prices of ten food products, exchange rate (the value of Iranian rial per US dollar), and petroleum prices. All data in this study are from the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI). We employ the panel unit root test, Pedroni co-integration tests, Pooled Mean Group (PMG), Mean Group (MG), and Dynamic Fixed Effects (DFE) estimation techniques, applied to a panel of monthly prices for ten food products for the period of March 1995 to February 2018. Results show that in both the short- and long-run, food prices would increase in response to an increase in energy prices. Findings also suggest that the appreciation of the United States Dollar (USD) in terms of the Iranian rial exerts a positive and significant impact on food prices in the long run.