Rooftop Photovoltaic Energy Production Estimations in India Using Remotely Sensed Data and Methods

Abstract

We investigate the possibility of estimating global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in parallel to photovoltaic (PV) power production in India using a radiative transfer model (RTM) called libRadtran fed with satellite information on the cloud and aerosol conditions. For the assessment of PV energy production, we exploited one year’s (January–December 2018) ground-based real-time measurements of solar irradiation GHI via silicon irradiance sensors (Si sensor), along with cloud optical thickness (COT). The data used in this method was taken from two different sources, which are EUMETSAT’s Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Services (CAMS). The COT and AOD are used as the main input parameters to the RTM along with other ones (such as solar zenith angle, Ångström exponent, single scattering albedo, etc.) in order to simulate the GHI under all sky, clear (no clouds), and clear-clean (no clouds and no aerosols) conditions. This enabled us to quantify the cloud modification factor (CMF) and aerosol modification factor (AMF), respectively. Subsequently, the whole simulation is compared with the actual recorded data at four solar power plants, i.e., Kazaria Thanagazi, Kazaria Ceramics, Chopanki, and Bhiwadi in the Alwar district of Rajasthan state, India. The maximum monthly average attenuation due to the clouds and aerosols are 24.4% and 11.3%, respectively. The energy and economic impact of clouds and aerosols are presented in terms of energy loss (EL) and financial loss (FL). We found that the maximum EL in the year 2018 due to clouds and aerosols were 458 kWh m−2 and 230 kWh m−2, respectively, observed at Thanagazi location. The results of this study highlight the capabilities of Earth observations (EO), in terms not only of accuracy but also resolution, in precise quantification of atmospheric effect parameters. Simulations of PV energy production using EO data and techniques are therefore useful for real-time estimates of PV energy outputs and can improve energy management and production inspection. Success in such important venture, energy management, and production inspections will become much easier and more effective.