Development of a Prediction Model for Daily PM2.5 in Republic of Korea by Using an Artificial Neutral Network

Abstract

This study aims to develop PM2.5 prediction models using air pollutant data (PM10, NO2, SO2, O3, CO, and PM2.5) and meteorological data (temperature, humidity, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, and snowfall) measured in South Korea from 2015 to 2019. Two prediction models were developed using an artificial neural network (ANN): a nationwide (NW) model and administrative districts (AD) model. To develop the prediction models, the independent variables daily averages and variances of air pollutant data and meteorological data (independent variables) were used as independent variables, and daily average PM2.5 concentration set as a dependent variable. First, the correlations between independent and dependent variables were analyzed. Second, prediction models were developed using an ANN to predict next-day PM2.5 daily average concentration, both NW and in 16 AD. The ANN models were optimized using a factorial design to determine the hidden layer layout and threshold, and a seasonal (monthly) factor was also considered. In the optimal prediction model, the absolute error in 1 σ was 91% (in-sample 91%, out-of-sample 91%) for the NW model, and the absolute error in 1 σ was 86% (in-sample 88%, out-of-sample 84%) for AD model. The accuracy of these prediction models increases further when they are developed using the next-day weather data, assuming that the weather prediction is accurate.