The 2022 Seismic Sequence in the Northern Adriatic Sea and Its Long-Term Simulation
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Published:2023-03-15
Issue:6
Volume:13
Page:3746
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ISSN:2076-3417
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Container-title:Applied Sciences
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Applied Sciences
Author:
Console Rodolfo12ORCID, Vannoli Paola1ORCID, Carluccio Roberto1ORCID
Affiliation:
1. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 00143 Rome, Italy 2. Center of Integrated Geomorphology for the Mediterranean Area, 85100 Potenza, Italy
Abstract
We studied the long-term features of earthquakes caused by a fault system in the northern Adriatic sea that experienced a series of quakes beginning with two main shocks of magnitude 5.5 and 5.2 on 9 November 2022 at 06:07 and 06:08 UTC, respectively. This offshore fault system, identified through seismic reflection profiles, has a low slip rate of 0.2–0.5 mm/yr. As the historical record spanning a millennium does not extend beyond the inter-event time for the largest expected earthquakes (M≃6.5), we used an earthquake simulator to generate a 100,000-year catalogue with 121 events of Mw≥5.5. The simulation results showed a recurrence time (Tr) increasing from 800 yrs to 1700 yrs as the magnitude threshold increased from 5.5 to 6.5. However, the standard deviation σ of inter-event times remained at a stable value of 700 yrs regardless of the magnitude threshold. This means that the coefficient of variation (Cv=σ/Tr) decreased from 0.9 to 0.4 as the threshold magnitude increased from 5.5 to 6.5, making earthquakes more predictable over time for larger magnitudes. Our study supports the use of a renewal model for seismic hazard assessment in regions of moderate seismicity, especially when historical catalogues are not available.
Subject
Fluid Flow and Transfer Processes,Computer Science Applications,Process Chemistry and Technology,General Engineering,Instrumentation,General Materials Science
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