Developing an Integrated Energy Demand-Supply Modeling Framework for Scenario Analysis of the Low Carbon Emission Energy System in Zambia

Abstract

This study develops an integrated modeling approach to analyze the effects of different scenarios compared to a baseline (2019) scenario on energy demand and supply in Zambia. Aiming at minimizing costs, the model combines available resources and technologies, adhering to techno-economic and environmental limits. On the demand side, the study uses time series analysis to forecast future electricity demand in Zambia. The supply-side energy model identifies the optimal combination of resources and technologies needed to satisfy exogenously specified electricity demand levels at the least cost. The baseline scenario results revealed that the power outages in Zambia, especially at peak times, have been attributed to reliance on imported fuel for power generation, the slow-paced integration of renewable resources, and not fully utilizing resource potential for the supply side. To overcome the power outages and meet the electricity demand in 2035, a comprehensive scenario analysis was conducted, including the main scenarios of 30% integration of renewable energy, no coal power generation, and low emission targets (10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50% reduction from the baseline). The expected CO2 reductions from the renewable energy scenario, no coal scenario, and 50% low emission target are estimated at 5222 kilotons in 2035, respectively.